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The Elliott Wave principle - what is it? Prechter on Elliott Waves More about Elliott Wave Interview on the coming economic crash Deflation-Deflation Elliott Wave books Elliott Wave and Real Estate Mortgage Lending Problems and the Elliot Wave The Fed's a Lousy Wizard Subprime Mortgages, a 1-2 punch Recognizing Financial Manias Best Investments in a Recession?-New! What to do in a Recession-New! Elliott Wave and Real EstateSubprime's New Song: The Worst Is Yet To ComeBy Susan C. Walker,
Elliott Wave International Remember that catchy love song that Frank Sinatra made popular in the 1960s, "The Best Is Yet To Come"?
You think you've seen the sun, but you ain't seen it shine." At the risk of mixing musical metaphors and styles, it looks more like the sun has deserted us right now in the financial markets, and we're about to see "The Dark Side of the Moon," the title of Pink Floyd's 1973 smash album. With the subprime mortgage problems reaching farther and farther out to touch hedge funds, U.S. and European banks, mortgage companies and money-market funds, what we're going to experience sounds more like "The Worst is Yet To Come." That's because the financial markets must contend not only with the credit crunch brought on by rising foreclosures now; they must also deal with the repercussions from more foreclosures over the next 18 months as more adjustable-rate mortgages (whether subprime or not) reset from low teaser rates to higher interest-rate levels. How bad can it get? Investment adviser John Mauldin recently published a month-by-month account of the dollar amount of mortgages that will be reset through 2008, and the largest reset amounts pop up in the first six months of next year. In fact, as he points out, the $197 billion of mortgage resets so far this year is "less than we will see in two months (February and March) of next year. The first six months of next year will see more than the total for 2007, or $521 billion." So, we haven't even begun to feel the pain yet. It's bad enough for the folks who will find that they can't keep up with the higher mortgage payments and will have to move out of their homes. But the financial markets won't be catching a break either. The antiseptic phrase used to describe the situation is "repricing risk." That means that investors have woken up to the fact that the AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities and derivatives they invested in look more like junk bonds now. This eye-opener causes them to want higher yields from what they now see as riskier vehicles. That new investor caution plays out this way: investment banks, hedge funds and any other entity that bought securities backed by subprime loans now find it hard to sell the darn things. It's almost the same as homeowners trying to find buyers for their homes – nearly impossible in a market where home prices are falling. In the financial markets, it's nearly impossible because no one even wants to attach a price to a collateralized debt obligation today for fear that it will be priced much lower tomorrow. The Fed can try to calm such fears all it wants by lowering the discount rate and giving banks more time to pay back loans (from overnight to 30 days), but the real problem can't be fixed with more access to credit. The fact is nobody wants any more of that. What they really want is cash to pay off their debts, be it a mortgage or an unwinding of a securities bet.
Wall Street's denizens are in the dark abouthow much their schemes depend on the ocean of liquidity created by the bull market, say Elliott Wave International's analysts, Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall. They are particularly struck by the image of the Grim Reaper that Business Week magazine put on its cover recently with the headline, "Death Bonds:"
And the bad news just keeps accumulating:
To top it off, Bloomberg reports that the subprime mess may lead to
lower bonuses for the first time in five years on Wall Street, according
to Options Group, a company that's been tracking this kind of
information for a decade. Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company. She has been an associate editor with Inc. magazine, a newspaper writer and editor, an investor relations executive and a speechwriter for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Her columns also appear regularly on FoxNews.com. For more information on the housing market and the credit crisis, access the free report, “The Real State of Real Estate,” from Elliott Wave International. Copyright 1997-2005 Elliott Wave International - Used by permission
ELLIOTT WAVE TUTORIAL
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-So Says Bob Prechter, But He
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This
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Click here to view or buy book by A. J. Frost and Robert Prechter This is "the" book on the Wave Principle. New 20th Anniversary Edition. Probably the best book on explaining basic Market Behavior using the wave principles of R. N. Elliott. Principles can be applied to any market from Stocks to gold and silver.
The Elliott Wave principle - what is it? Prechter on Elliott Waves More about Elliott Wave Interview on the coming economic crash Deflation-Deflation Elliott Wave books
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